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BIG MARLEY’S UFC 234 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card in Australia. DraftKings altered up their competitions a bit and I like the new selection of contests and prizes. The most important GPP is now a $10 buy-in and $30k belongs to 1st place. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first location cost and $175k will be distributed between all 100 entries that qualify. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and then toss 100 or so entries at that $30k decoration. I’ll also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good amount of play into money games.
Money Game play of the week — Shane Young ($9,100)
I am not loving this slate to get money games, and that I was only going to decide on the principal event stack for my cash game play of the week. However, I will see the major event only scoring ~100 total points and once I’m stacking I want a floor of 100 with upside of 160 or so. I’ve changed my stance on the pile and I think Shane Young creates a fantastic cash game play. I really don’t understand how large of a ceiling he’s because I do believe this fight goes all 3 rounds, but I really do feel confident in him winning and much more confident in him not getting finished. I think he’s a high floor because this battle should move all 3 rounds, but I presume he’s the better fighter anyplace and that I see him winning this battle with a combination of wrestling and striking. I do think he’s 100-point upside into a conclusion, and I think he could finish this fight. But I feel like he’s a safe play for 80+ and that’s why he is my cash game play of the week instead of my GPP playwith. GPP drama of this week — Kyung Ho Kang ($9,400)
I think the only way Kang loses this fight is by getting KO’d. He should be the much superior fighter on the mat, and I think he can hang on the feet too. I expect him to look for takedowns early and frequently, and Ishihara does not have any ground game to compete off his back. Since Ishihara does have hefty power in his hands I think Kang includes a floor of 0 points, but this is why he is my GPP play of the week and not my cash game play of this week. In money, I want to lock in higher floors and that’s not what we have here. I enjoy this more for GPPs because when he loses $9.4k it won’t matter how many things he’s, we would not be cashing. In cash games, we could still come away with a profit if he dropped a determination at that price and scored 30-40 points, we’d just have to hit on our other areas. We do not need 6 wins in money, but we do for GPP. Thus, we can take the opportunity on a 0 there because he’s 100+ upside because he is going to be the fighter wanting to grapple and that I could see him becoming numerous takedowns as well as a submission. I believe he gets a 1st or 2nd round entry and I don’t expect for him to stand too long using Ishihara. I think Kang can outscore Adesanya in this area and I like him as a pivot away from a big name who might be popular.
Underdog drama of this week — Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300)
I am actually choosing Whittaker to win this particular fight, but I also don’t love many/any underdogs with this card. I expect this struggle to remain standing for as long as it lasts. I personally find this going the space and Whittaker winning a unanimous decision. If that is the case, then I believe Gastelum gets the highest floor of the underdogs since he’ll have 5 rounds to function with and he’ll land a reasonable number of shots. I also believe if Whittaker wins a 25-minute decision that he probably just scores 85-95 DK points. At his 8.9k salary, that might not put him on the 30k lineup. In case Kelvin wins, whether it be by KO or conclusion, he will almost surely be on that $30k lineup at his $7.3k salary. That is why he’s my underdog drama of the week.
Fade of the week — Sam Alvey ($7,900)
I have to remain on new with this one and pick Sam Alvey as my fade of this week. I’ve picked him as my fade every time he’s fought so I will roll with it again. The style Alvey brings to the table is just not beneficial for DraftKings. The only real way Alvey can possibly score tremendously is by getting a knockout win. He does not strike at a high enough pace to score highly at a decision and he won’t be heading for any takedowns. Even if he gets a conclusion win here he can score 50-60 DK points and that might not be adequate to win a GPP, even with him being the underdog. I need at least 10x from a fighter when I roster them and together with his $7.9k price label, so I want at least 79 DK points. I don’t see that happening and that’s the reason he’s my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link too. I am 54-34 to get +177.13u (+$17,713) since May 19th on Premium Plays)

Read more here: http://www.samasolutionstech.com/wp/2019/09/25/nascar-phoenix-picks-best-value-bet-for-the-ticketguardian-500-at-ism-raceway/