Jason’s 2019 NFL picks record through Week 6: 4-4 ATS, 3-2 Totals
What if we told you that the Minnesota Vikings were the group from the NFL? Hey, don’t look at us: Football Outsiders possess Minnesota ranked No. 4 at DVOA (No. 5 crime, No. 6 defense, No. 14 specific teams) heading into Week 7. Oh, and all of that moaning over QB Kirk Cousins does not hold water. He’s No. 8 overall in death DVOA, three areas better than Aaron Rodgers. Numbers do not lie.
Speaking of figures, the under-appreciated Vikings (4-2 SU and ATS) could have some gambling significance as 1-point street faves for Sunday’s game against the Detroit Lions (2-2-1 SU, 4-1 ATS). However, both these North teams have been rewarding thus far. We may get more value from the”below” now that the entire has transferred out of 44 to as high as 46 about the NFL odds board.
Let’s be sure we’re on the Perfect track by looking at the projections before we break down our options:
FiveThirtyEight: Minnesota –two
Jeff Sagarin: Minnesota –5.99, 44.76 total
As we guessed. If you go for Nate Silver’s crew, there is profit margin to work with for your spread, which is normal for an NFL regular-season match. Jeff Sagarin’s amounts are somewhat more bullish on Minnesota; we are quoting his eigenvector disperse, but his recent propagate for your Vikes is 2.94, that gets us near this 2-point margin we are searching for. Be aware that we are very near the number 3.
Naturally, if we’re serious about investing, when they are in our favor, we will need to jump on these opening lines. The Vikings started at the press — but only at $58 a soda , according to the consensus accounts that were enlarged before the sharps gobbled them up. Small perimeter, little wager.
On-line proceed to the complete is intriguing. Team scoring is down from 23.3 points per game last year to 22.4, and the”under” is currently 49-43 (53.3 percent) throughout the league, so auto-betting the”over” to your NFL picks does not hold water right today — unless you are confident there will be some regression to the expression, perhaps in the kicking game.
Also, the matchup on the ground things toward a lower scoring match. The Lions position No. 14 overall in DVOA, however only No. 21 on crime in comparison to No. 12 on defense (and moment on special teams). Then you have all that running around the Vikings dothey’re fourth in attempts this season.
In regards to that total, 23, we are looking at a small window between the projections and the odds. Let’s follow the sharps, put Minnesota in our selections for a sum, and as always, will the prolate spheroid be with you.
Free NFL Pick: Vikings –1 (–105) in 5Dimes